In this paper we draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society (LCS) in Japan by 2050. Future pathways for Japan to follow are calculated using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology. Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward a LCS in Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at the initial stages. The investment requirements for the residential and commercial sector and transportation sector will be especially costly: The former reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2025 and the latter reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2015. There are four main advantages to early actions. (1) Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: The additional cost of reducing CO2 emissions will fall as the technologies spread. (2) If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS. (3) No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050. (4) Future technological development has several uncertainties. If the development of one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule, it will fail to spread as expected and CO2 emission targets will not be met. Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way.

 

 

Outline

INTRODUCTION

OVERVIEW OF THE BACKCAST MODEL

Predicting future service demand

Listing possible options (countermeasures and policies) for achieving future scenarios

Quantifying options

Adding relationships among options

Quantitative investigation by the backcast model

Preliminary conditions of the model

Optimization criteria

Evaluation of learning-by-doing effects

Energy supply and CO2 emission

Calculating the energy supply demand and energy consumption (BAU).

Balance of energy consumption.

Estimation of CO2 emission.

PATHWAYS TOWARD 70% REDUCTION IN 2050 USING THE BACKCAST MODEL

VIEWPOINTS OF FUTURE PATHWAYS: FOUR REASONS FOR TAKING EARLY ACTIONS

Learning-by-doing effects

Delays in initiating action will push up costs

It takes time to construct infrastructure

There are uncertainties in technological research, development, and deployment

CONCLUSIONS

Acknowledgments

References